About a year ago, during the great concern about how the Electoral College is bad for America, I would hear myself saying, “It won’t matter after this election.”
Don’t get me wrong. I believe there are good reasons why the founders of our nation included the Electoral College in the U.S. Constitution. [If you have questions about this read James Madison in Federalist Papers #10 and a student of the constitutional prescription, Tara Ross, at TaraRoss.com.] The results of a pure democracy can be readily seen in the French Revolution. Mob rule was swayed by the latest popular mood swing because of “the will of the people” (repeated 15 times in the “French Declaration of the Rights of Man”). Democracy is nice if you are on the side of the 51%. But I digress.
In conversations with a historian and a law professor I made my suggestion in the form of today’s title. After hearing my three points, they agreed. I suggest the following ideas purely from a “humanly speaking” point of view (my way of saying, “I am neither a prophet, nor the son of a prophet,” al la Amos 7:14). My forecasting is based on my personal observations and understanding of human nature.
The reasons I do not believe the electoral college will matter after 2020:
- Migration. I was reminded of this again when I read of the exodus out of California to Texas. Californians are
(generally) known to be more “progressive” in their political persuasions. A large population increase in a more politically “conservative” state like Texas from California could, in years to come, change the electoral college results. Just today (20 Jan 2021) I noticed an article in Linked In that suggested a similar occurrence in Tennessee:
(generally) known to be more “progressive” in their political persuasions. “In a U-Haul study of more than 2 million one-way rental transactions, Tennessee claimed the top spot for the most one-way U-Haul arrivals” (link here).
The same kind of event took place in Vermont. The Manchester Journal reported how the once “Red” state turned “Blue.” [I am not necessarily making “Red” equivalent to “conservative” or “Republican”, but I do note certain similarities between those groups as I do between “Blue,” “progressive” or “Democrat”].
“By 1970, one in four Vermont residents had been born elsewhere, according to Vermont historian Bill Doyle, and many came from more liberal northeastern states, bringing their ideologies with them” (link here).
Progressive voters moving to conservative states may alter the future of the Electoral College map.
- Education. Working in the public university, I have a front-row seat to politically progressive university perspectives. One of the reasons we began The Comenius Institute was to help young Christian college students have a distinctive Christian academic voice on campus. I have recorded numerous conversations with both students and faculty that demonstrate the readings, assignments, and worldviews that are promoted or ignored in the academe. Then I went further. I just completed an M.A. degree in the School of Liberal Arts where I serve Comenius students. I have sat under the instruction of departmental professors whose political views are either declared in class or by the assignments given. The future of the educated in this country will mirror the progressive education which has tutored them. The population, by and large, will displace any “conservative” state’s influence.
- Population. Older Americans tend to be more “conservative” in their viewpoints. But the older population is waning in influence because of something as simple as “the death rate.” Voters in more conservative states will be “replaced” by the young, whose worldview has been largely influenced by the “progressive” culture of America. The Electoral College map will shift over time by something as simple as the death rate.
perspectives. One of the reasons we began The Comenius Institute was to help young Christian college students have a distinctive Christian academic voice on campus. I have recorded numerous conversations with both students and faculty that demonstrate the readings, assignments, and worldviews that are promoted or ignored in the academe. 
Population. Older Americans tend to be more “conservative” in their viewpoints. But the older population is waning in influence because of something as simple as “the death rate.” Voters in more conservative states will be “replaced” by the young, whose worldview has been largely influenced by the “progressive” culture of America. Perhaps in the future I will write more about definitions of “conservative” and “progressive.” But on the eve of a new
president’s inauguration, I thought it would be important to write this musing. A fourth point that I would make here is best left as the conclusion. Whenever the discussion of a subject falls off the journalistic radar, it is time to take notice. I believe the journalists and those who supply reporters with the content of their articles, stop talking about something when it doesn’t matter anymore. Hence, the title of my musing, “The Electoral College: Why I Don’t Think It Will Matter After 2020.”